Zogby: Romney Rockets!

Latest New Hampshire telephone poll shows Romney’s support nearly doubles to 25% to tie McCain; Giuliani trails at 19%

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has rocketed to the top of the field of contenders for the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary crown, running dead even with Arizona Sen. John McCain at 25% each, a new Zogby International telephone poll shows. With Romney’s ascension, the GOP presidential race looks just like the Democratic contest – a three–way battle!While McCain has held mostly steady at the top of the Republican field in New Hampshire, losing just one point since January, Romney has made the big move up from 13% two months ago. Rudy Giuliani, the former mayor of New York who is the toast of Republican primary voters nationally, finds himself in third place in the Granite State at 19% support, falling slightly from 20% in January to 19% this week.

Fred Thompson, the actor and former senator from Tennessee won 6% support in this latest survey of 502 likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters, which was conducted April 2-3, 2007, and contains a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points.

Pollster John Zogby: “Score this as a big week for Mitt Romney. These poll numbers, together with the small increase in Iowa and a huge fund–raising effort, puts him into the top tier and makes him a major player in the race for the GOP nomination. John McCain’s support stays steady and makes him a contender and gives him a boost in an otherwise lackluster week. Move over, Rudy. You’ve got a real race on your hands!”

Romney has a slight edge over McCain among men – 27% support Romney while 25% favor McCain. Giuliani gets 19% support among men. McCain wins support from 25% of women, followed by Romney (23%) and Giuliani (18%).

McCain is the favored candidate among younger respondents – nearly half (48%) of those 18-29 said they would vote for the former war hero–turned senator. There is also strong support for Romney among this age group, as 37% said they would support the former Massachusetts governor. Giuliani gets the most support from those age 30 to 49 at (28%) and leads the field over all other candidates among this age group.

Asked about the strength of support for their candidate, McCain shows a slight edge over the other top candidates – 88% of McCain supporters said their backing was strong, compared to 86% of Romney supporters and 85% of those supporting Giuliani.

Republicans in New Hampshire – 2007

Apr. 3

Jan. 18

 

Romney

25%

13%

McCain

25%

26%

Giuliani

19%

20%

Hagel

1%

3%

Huckabee

1%

1%

Hunter

1%

1%

Paul

2%

1%

Brownback

<1%

<1%

Tancredo

1%

3%

Fred Thompson

6%

Tommy Thompson

<1%

Not sure

17%

15%

More than half of respondents (54%) said they were more likely to vote for a candidate who is generally more conservative, while 37% said they would favor a more moderate candidate. Romney is the top choice of those who identify themselves as “conservative” and “very conservative”.

The vast majority respondents (85%) said they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who stands up for what they believe in, regardless if they can win the general election. Younger respondents (age 18 to 29) were more likely than older respondents to favor a candidate who will stand by his or her beliefs – 96% in this age group feel this way, compared to 79% of those age 65 and older. Women (89%) are also more likely than men (82%) to say they would vote for the candidate who puts their beliefs first. Overall, 11% said they would rather have a candidate who can win.

For a detailed methodological statement on this survey, please visit:
http://www.zogby.com/methodology/readmeth.dbm?ID=1181

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